Wow. I was wrong.
Most people were wrong, to be honest. Odds, polls, experts… The answer to the question who would win out of Finland, Australia, Romania, France, Denmark or Israel was: Bulgaria. And not even any question about it in the end. They won it all with great margin; juries and public votes. How could this happen, totally under the radar? I might have been wrong in my predictions, but let’s analyse why!
First, this is how unpredictable I really would want Eurovision to be. We have had a few years where it has been too easy to spot the winner, or at least which two or three countries that will share the split screen in the end. No fun at all.
Second, every now and then Eurovision goes through a paradigm shift, or at least breaks it own pattern. We saw it in 2003-2004 when Sertab and Ruslana introduced the ethnic pop bangers with strong dance performances (no, it was not Eleni Foureira in 2018 or Chanel in 2022 who was the ‘original’!). We saw it when Lordi paved way for rock and heavy metal in 2006. We saw it when Loreen scaled it down again to more of intimate artistry in 2012. We saw it when Netta broke the more pretentious streak of winners in 2018. When Måneskin delivered live energy on stage in 2021. And when Nemo mixed genres and took vocal performance to a new level in 2024. Apparently people were tired of operatic vocals and were set on a banger to win in 2026.
Third, the odds have somewhat played out their role. They have not predicted a winner since Loreen 2023. Nowadays, when they put all focus on one favourite the effect is almost the opposite. People start to envy – even hate – that song and look for alternatives. This is probably what happened to Finland this year, who were favourites from the start. It somewhat feels like the whole Nordics are now under the Swedish syndrome: hyped to begin with, but let down when the votes are counted. I feel kind of sad for my brothers and sisters in Finland, who dared to fly high with Linda & Pete and still did not win.
Fourth, we might witness another revolution and a generational change. It is not people who are betting, participating in polls on fan sites or even put out their reaction videos on Youtube who make the biggest impact anymore when the final votes are cast – it is the TikTok generation. Which songs and artists are most fun and make the best content? Which song do you wanna dance to?
Fifth, there is sadly the political dimension. Israel can’t win. Not now. Therefore juries put their eggs in the basket which they feel has the best chance to beat Israel in public votes. This time they put their wet fingers in the air after the semifinals (where Bulgaria were not favoured by the juries – but by the televoters) and found “Bangaranga”.
Sixth, I will not deny that Dara did an excellent performance, full of power and with perfect timing in every move. She made a mediocre song stand out, when it counted the most. Just what Bambie Thug did in 2024 with “Doomsday Blue”. “Bangaranga” is still a mess, repetitive and annoying, but they nailed the performance. This makes me worry a bit about if we are facing a future of Eurovision where it will be even more about the choreography, staging and spectacular show, and less about the song and the voice. But, in that sense, Australia would have been an even worse option.
Seventh, if more countries will seek the ‘circus’ we might end up with a bunch of “Poison Cake” and “Ferto” instead of “Asteromata” and “Andromeda”. This would kill a big part of the spirit of Eurovision for me. Sure I can love a party song like “Cha Cha Cha” or “Rim Tim Tagi Dim” if they are innovative and catchy enough, but the ethnic authenticity will always be my lifeblood.
Eight, I really thought that Finland had the most unifying entry this year, between juries and public. But there came Bulgaria. Not as stiff and outdated as Australia and France. Not as silly and questionable in quality as Greece and Moldova. Not from the Nordics or the Alps. Not as scary as Romania and Serbia, but still with a sting.
Ninth, I must again admit: I was wrong! I did not see this coming. If it had been Croatia or Albania that made this unexpected progress in the last minutes I would of course have been happy as a fool and said “I told you so”, to each and everyone. But the worst thing is, when you settle to not like a song in this competition, it is hard to turn away from that path. You invest so many arguments in why you don’t like a particular song that you in the end just have to stand your ground until the bitter end. Even if you unwillingly along the way start to see and hear what others like in a song or performance. But after the contest it’s another thing. Now I can enjoy “Bangaranga” or “Viva Moldova!” if I would like, without any prestige. I just have to evaluate this failure and learn. That’s the task ahead.
Tenth, I was a bit right as well. I almost nailed bottom six. If Felicia had passed Cyprus I would have had Austria, Germany, UK, Cyprus, Belgium and Lithuania in the bottom. That has to count for something, at least.
Now, it’s only seven months until Festivali i Këngës!
Show me the eclipse at Sunset Boulevard – all the finalists in Eurovision Song Contest 2026